Corn futures took it on the chin on Monday after the USDA revised its 2025 US production estimate higher rather than lower, as expected. Soybeans and wheat were also weaker.
In its much-anticipated monthly supply-demand update on Monday, the USDA pegged last year’s American corn crop at record 17.021 billion bu, an increase of 269 million bu from the government’s November estimate and a hefty 14% above a year earlier. Most traders and analysts were expecting a reduction in the corn production estimate. Meanwhile, a USDA grain stocks report, also released today, showed Dec. 1 stockpiles of American corn above expectations as well. March corn tumbled 24 ¼ cents to $4.21 ½, and December lost 12 ½ cents to $4.51 ½.
Soybeans declined as the USDA raised the size of the US crop modestly higher while cutting 2025-26 exports. Estimated soybean exports were cut 60 million bu this month to 1.575 billion bu, versus 1.882 billion in 2024-25. Dec. 1 soybean stocks were also heavier than expected. March beans lost 13 ½ cents to $10.49 and November dropped 4 ¾ cents to $10.67.
US and global wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 were both revised higher in today’s reports, with Dec. 1 stocks higher than expected. A winter wheat and canola seedings report, also released today, showed national winter wheat planted area for harvest in 2026 at 32.99 million acres, down less than 1% from last year’s 33.153 million but above trade ideas. March Chicago fell 6 cents to $5.11 ¼, and March Kansas City slipped 3 ½ cents to $5.26 ¾. March Hard Red Spring was 4 cents lower at $5.56, and March Minneapolis was down 1 ¾ cents at $5.65 ¾.
